Latest Commercial real estate trends in the USA in 2026

Commercial real estate trends in the USA in 2026 reflect a market in transition toward stabilization and selective recovery after years of volatility from high interest rates, hybrid work shifts, and economic uncertainty. As of late February 2026, the sector shows renewed optimism: investment activity is projected to rise significantly (e.g., +16% to ~$562 billion per CBRE), transaction volumes are increasing (15–20% per Colliers), and capital is flowing back as rates ease and fundamentals improve in key sectors.

Driven by AI infrastructure demand, resilient consumer spending, and policy factors like tariffs, the market rewards precision, quality assets, and localized strategies. Overall, it’s a year of cautious optimism—progress in most sectors, but uneven outcomes with “decaf stagflation” (modest growth, stubborn inflation) limiting aggressive moves.

This in-depth guide covers current trends (late February 2026 data from CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, J.P. Morgan, CoStar, NAR, and others), sector-by-sector breakdowns, key drivers, average metrics, top opportunities, and tips for investors or professionals.

Why Commercial Real Estate in 2026?

• Economic backdrop — GDP growth ~2.0% (CBRE), inflation ~2.5%, softening labor market; no sharp downturn, but modest pace.
• Capital markets recovery — Easier refinancing, returning institutional/cross-border capital; cap rates compressing 5–15 bps in many types.
• Leasing rebound — Activity recovering from 2024 lows; focus on quality, power-capable, and experience-driven spaces.
• Key drivers — AI/data center boom, tariffs reshaping supply chains, K-shaped consumer spending (luxury vs. value), return-to-office momentum, proptech/AI adoption.
• Risks — Policy uncertainty (tariffs, immigration), $1.5T+ debt maturities (esp. office/retail), uneven job growth.

The sector proves resilient, with multifamily, industrial, retail, and emerging areas (data centers) leading; office stabilizes but lags.

Sector-by-Sector Trends in 2026

1. Office

• Vacancy — Stabilizing or declining: National ~18.4% (down from 19.9% peak in March 2025, per Yardi Matrix/CoStar); CoStar forecasts ~14.1% plateau through 2026, then gradual drop. Manhattan leads at ~13.6%.
• Trends — Demand recovering (return-to-office mandates, coworking growth adding 1,000+ locations); usage/rents up in select markets; concessions persist but easing.
• Outlook — Bouncing back in premium/suburban/flex spaces; Class A flight-to-quality; hybrid work permanent but in-office rising modestly.
• Best for: Selective investors in high-demand metros (e.g., Manhattan, select Sun Belt).

1. Industrial / Logistics

• Vacancy — Stabilized ~9.2% (plateauing, tightening expected late 2026).
• Trends — Renewed momentum: slower deliveries (down 50–70% from peak), disciplined development, strong leasing in modern/power-capable assets; reshoring, 3PL outsourcing, tariffs redefining demand (onshoring boost).
• Outlook — Remains strong; focus on urban infill/big-box in Texas/California; supply constraints support rents.
• Best for: High conviction; longer WALT assets for stability.

1. Retail

• Trends — Steady/resilient: K-shaped spending favors experience-driven (restaurants, wellness, entertainment, services); grocery/discount/services expand; scarcity from low new construction.
• Rents — Up ~1.5–1.9% nationally; stronger in South/West (3–5% in Austin/Dallas/Orlando).
• Outlook — Winners: physical retail reliant on location; foot traffic back; mixed-use/ground-floor strong.
• Best for: Value/grocery-anchored; avoid legacy malls.

1. Multifamily

• Trends — Strong fundamentals; demand in high-wage/employment hubs; some negative absorption in oversupplied areas but overall resilient.
• Outlook — Coastal/select Sun Belt favored; repositioning/upgrades common.

1. Other/Emerging

• Data centers / AI infrastructure — Surge in demand; power/water constraints limit supply; high conviction for specialized assets.
• Proptech/AI — Rapid adoption for leasing, modeling, tokenization.

Average Metrics and Forecasts in 2026

• Investment volume — +16% to ~$562B (CBRE); sales up 15–20% (Colliers).
• Cap rates — Compression 5–15 bps for most types.
• Leasing — Recovering; industrial/office/retail show gains.
• Construction — Down sharply (esp. industrial/retail); favors existing quality assets.
• Returns — Stabilizing/positive; private real estate poised for recovery.

Best Opportunities and Players in 2026

• Top sectors — Industrial (high conviction), data centers, select retail/multifamily, premium office.
• Markets — Sun Belt (Texas/Florida growth), select coastal (high-wage jobs), Midwest for affordability.
• Investors/Lenders — J.P. Morgan (strong outlook), Cushman & Wakefield (trends leader), CBRE (forecasts), Colliers (sales volume).
• Platforms/Resources — CoStar (vacancy data), NAR (insights), PwC/ULI Emerging Trends report.

How to Navigate Commercial Real Estate in 2026

1. Focus on fundamentals — Quality assets, strong locations, durable cash flow; avoid broad bets.
2. Shop selectively — Use data tools for localized analysis; prioritize power-capable/modern spaces.
3. Monitor macro — Tariffs, Fed moves, AI/job growth; act on stabilizing rates.
4. Build teams — Brokers, lenders, analysts for deals.
5. Risk management — Conservative underwriting; consider debt opportunities for diversification.
6. Start small/strategic — Reposition existing assets or target high-conviction niches.

Commercial real estate in 2026 offers real potential for disciplined investors amid stabilization and selective growth. Whether focusing on industrial resilience, office recovery, or AI-driven demand, the market rewards precision over speculation. Track reports from CBRE/Cushman for updates, consult professionals for personalized strategies, and monitor economic indicators closely—opportunities are emerging, but uneven. What’s your focus area (e.g., office, industrial)? I can dive deeper!